Adobe predicted that online holiday season sales will rise 13.8% this year to top $100 billion for the first time.
According to the report, released Thursday, online sales will grow to $107.4 billion from $94.4 billion in 2016. That's a projected growth rate of 13.8%—a bit slower than in 2016, when the gain was 14.4%, and well off 2015's 17.7% pace.
Adobe's projection is roughly in line with other forecasts for the holiday season, including eMarketer's. Like Adobe, eMarketer predicts this will be the first year in which digital sales during the holiday season top $100 billion, reaching $107 billion, an increase of 16.6%.
Other projections have been somewhat more optimistic, but within a relatively close range. For example, Deloitte expects online holiday sales will increase between 18% to 21% to total as much as $114 billion.
Adobe noted that the holiday season tends to show a shift to cheaper products, with revenue growth lagging unit sales growth. In 2016, it found, four in five measured categories showed higher unit growth than revenue growth. For toys, unit sales grew 39%, while revenues rose 24%. The gap was less pronounced—but still visible—in categories including apparel and electronics.