Although some economic headwinds are finally beginning to form after mostly blue skies in 2018, we expect their effects to be muted until after the holidays. Retailers have built up inventories for products affected by tariffs on imports from China and are not expected to pass on notable price increases to consumers until 2019.
Brick-and-mortar sales for the 2018 holiday season will jump 4.4% to $878.38 billion (higher than the $863 billion projected in Q3). Brick-and-mortar still represents the majority (87.7%) of holiday sales, but its share has steadily declined.
“While ecommerce will continue to see strong double-digit gains, brick-and-mortar retail should be a particular bright spot this holiday season,” said Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at eMarketer. “Not every brick-and-mortar retailer is thriving, and several have shut their doors this year, but others are really capitalizing on the strong consumer economy. Retailers are luring in shoppers with remodeled stores, streamlined checkout and options to buy online, pick up in-store.”
Ecommerce sales this holiday season will increase 16.6% to $123.73 billion. That means ecommerce will represent 12.3% of all holiday retail sales this year, a figure that has been growing steadily.