Retail sales in Asia-Pacific will reach $9.254 trillion by the end of this year, with a growth rate of 7.7%. Gains are expected to be steady throughout the forecast period, mainly driven by increases from China.
eMarketer’s projection has been adjusted downward since its previous forecast in December 2016 due to weak exchange rates in Asia-Pacific relative to the US dollar.
eMarketer includes sales across all retail channels in its estimates for total retail sales. This includes sales from ecommerce retailers and transactions that occur over consumer-to-consumer (C2C) platforms such as eBay and other auction sites; and sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers and by gas stations. Travel, event ticket and restaurant sales are excluded from eMarketer’s forecast.
According to eMarketer’s latest report, “Asia-Pacific Retail and Ecommerce Sales: eMarketer's Estimates for 2016–2021,” China, the world’s largest retail market, will generate $4.910 trillion in total retail sales in 2017, representing 53.1% of sales in Asia-Pacific. By 2021, those figures will rise to $6.514 trillion and 55.1%. (Subscribers to eMarketer PRO can access the report here. Nonsubscribers can purchase the report here.)
Japan and India will post $1.283 trillion and $1.033 trillion in retail sales, respectively, this year. Together, this will account for one-quarter of retail sales in Asia-Pacific. While slumping consumer spending in Japan will lead to stagnant growth for that country throughout the forecast, retail sales in India will jump to $1.691 trillion by 2021.
Ecommerce is an increasingly large factor in overall retail sales for Asia-Pacific as buyers continue to increase their spending online. Retail ecommerce sales—which include products and services (except travel, restaurant and event ticket sales) ordered on the internet via any device—will total $1.365 trillion in 2017, up 29.6% over 2016. Ecommerce will account for 14.7% of total retail sales in Asia-Pacific this year, and will climb to 25.4% by 2021.